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Just found this super informative post

 
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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 7:58 pm    Post subject: Just found this super informative post Reply with quote

On why Trumps tariff plan is fucking stupid and will hurt America.

I'm glad that Prime Minister Trudeau's government is standing up for Canada. Nonetheless a trade war will be terrible for consumers across the globe.[1] The United States is attempting to hold economies across the globe as hostages while President Trump's administration negotiates trade deals with allies. For example these indiscrimnate steel tariffs will cost the Canadian economy $3.2 billion annually.[2] The world is not taking these policies lightly as U.S. allies have already retaliated with their own tariffs, Canada has released a plan targeting imports from America that would cost the U.S. $12.9 billion dollars while the European Union has prepared levies on U.S. exports worth $7.5 billion.[3] I completely agree with Prime Minister Trudeau's statement;[4]

"Let me be clear: These tariffs are totally unacceptable," Trudeau said. "Canadians have served alongside Americans in two world wars and in Korea. From the beaches of Normandy to the mountains of Afghanistan, we have fought and died together."

Noting that Canada purchases more U.S. steel than any other nation, Trudeau lambasted the Trump administration for initiating the tariffs under the guise of confronting a threat to national security. "Canada is a secure supplier of aluminum and steel to the U.S. defense industry, putting aluminum in American planes and steel in American tanks," Trudeau said. "That Canada could be considered a national security threat to the United States is inconceivable."

"These tariffs are an affront to the long-standing security partnership between Canada and the United States, and in particular, to the thousands of Canadians who have fought and died alongside American comrades-in-arms," he finished.

Let's take a look at the last two attempts where the United States of America initiated tariffs, it didn't end well for them;

President Bush attempted a protectionist agenda under his administration, but within a year of imposing tariffs the retaliation from allies was so severe that he was forced to reverse his decision.[5] President Obama attempted protectionist measures against China by imposing a tariff on tires, but it didn't end well for his administration as it did not boost U.S. employment and China's retaliation cost American chicken producers $1 billion in sales.[6] President Bush's trade war cost the United States 200,000 jobs and since then multiple studies have found that the cost of such protectionist measures outweigh any short-term benefit.[7]

200,000 Americans lost their jobs to higher steel prices during 2002. These lost jobs represent approximately $4 billion in lost wages from February to November 2002.3

One out of four (50,000) of these job losses occurred in the metal manufacturing, machinery and equipment and transportation equipment and parts sectors.

Job losses escalated steadily over 2002, peaking in November (at 202,000 jobs), and slightly declining to 197,000 jobs in December.4

More American workers lost their jobs in 2002 to higher steel prices than the total number employed by the U.S. steel industry itself (187,500 Americans were employed by U.S. steel producers in December 2002).

Every U.S. state experienced employment losses from higher steel costs, with the highest losses occurring in California (19,392 jobs lost), Texas (15,826 jobs lost), Ohio (10,553 jobs lost), Michigan (9,829 jobs lost), Illinois (9,621 jobs lost), Pennsylvania (8,400 jobs lost), New York (8,901 jobs lost) and Florida (8,370 jobs lost). Sixteen states lost at least 4,500 steel consuming jobs each over the course of 2002 from higher steel prices.

While insufficient data exist at this time to measure the precise role steel tariffs played in causing such significant price increases, relative to the other factors, it is clear that the Section 201 tariffs played a leading role pushing prices up. Steel tariffs caused shortages of imported product and put U.S. manufacturers of steel-containing products at a disadvantage relative to their foreign competitors. In the absence of the tariffs, the damage to steel consuming employment would have been significantly less than it was in 2002.

The analysis shows that American steel consumers have borne heavy costs from higher steel prices caused by shortages, tariffs and trade remedy duties, among other factors. Some customers of steel consumers have moved sourcing offshore as U.S. producers of steel-containing products became less reliable and more expensive. Other customers refused to accept higher prices from their suppliers and forced them to absorb the higher steel costs, which put many in a precarious (or worse) financial condition. The impact on steel-consuming industries has been significant.

The last two administrations have clearly demonstrated the negative impact from imposing tariffs on allies and foreign adversaries. Yet President Trump's new tariffs target U.S. allies more so than China. Canada, Mexico, and South Korea are America's leading steel import/export partners. President Trump has instituted these tariffs while there are ongoing trade talks between Western allies, these Western allies have vowed to retaliate.[8] Even the National Review, a well known Conservative publication, has come out against these insane protectionist measures;[9]

The economics here are pretty straightforward. Trump thinks steel is just one more example of the Chinese getting one over on Americans, but China is in fact a minor player in the U.S. steel-import business, being No. 11 among nations exporting steel to the United States. A quarter of our imported steel comes from our NAFTA partners, mostly from Canada, which provides 16 percent of U.S. steel imports. Among Asian steel exporters, South Korea is our largest trading partner, not China. Moody’s projects that the country that will be most adversely affected by the tariffs is Canada, followed by Bahrain, a country that does not loom particularly large in our economic consciousness, having as it does an annual national economic output about one-fifth of the Ford Motor Company’s. It is better to punish one’s enemies than one’s allies.

And it is no good at all to punish producers and consumers both, which is what tariffs do. Tariffs are a sales tax, in this case on a raw material that is used in everything from buildings to automobiles and industrial machinery — and the latter two are a big part of the U.S. export portfolio, something that ought to occur to a president who obsesses about the balance of trade. Steel is a necessary part of the machinery that produces the agricultural commodities, electronics, and industrial implements that are the heart of U.S. exports of goods. Advantaging a small number of politically connected firms at the expense of the broader manufacturing economy — which employs vastly more people and represents vastly more in the way of both economic production and exports — is damned foolish. As an economic matter, it is illiteracy in action. There’s a reason Caterpillar shares sank after the tariff announcement, along with Boeing, United Technologies, General Motors, and others.

...The president is in error and, while he undoubtedly has the authority to impose these tariffs, doing so will put us in violation of both the letter and the spirit of our existing trade agreements. To what end? The policy will hurt more American businesses and American workers than it will help, and it will absolutely imperil export-dependent American industries from the farms to the factories. It’s a bad idea, conceived and unveiled badly.

1) Politico - ‘Today is a bad day for world trade’: Trump slaps U.S. allies with tariffs

2) Global News - What U.S. steel, aluminum tariffs mean for Canadians — and their wallets

3) Wall Street Journal - U.S. Tariffs Prompt Anger, Retaliation From Trade Allies

4) The Hill - Trudeau: Trump tariffs 'are an affront' to Canadian soldiers who 'fought and died' alongside Americans

5) Wikipedia - 2002 United States steel tariff

6) CNN - Obama got tough on China. It cost U.S. jobs and raised prices

7) The Unintended Consequences of U.S. Steel Import Tariffs: A Quantification of the Impact During 2002, by Dr. Joseph Francois and Laura M. Baughman

Cool Foreign Policy - Here Comes Trump’s Trade War

9) National Review - Steel Yourselves

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PostPosted: Thu May 31, 2018 10:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tl;Dr quick reply
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